A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
